Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.010132 0.011444 0.012863 0.014513 0.016378 0.018422 0.020834
2025-12-07 0.007736 0.009467 0.011495 0.014048 0.017179 0.020901 0.025666
2025-12-14 0.006478 0.008372 0.010714 0.013829 0.017870 0.022945 0.029820
2025-12-21 0.005514 0.007450 0.009954 0.013436 0.018164 0.024379 0.033197
2025-12-28 0.005080 0.007135 0.009898 0.013894 0.019542 0.027267 0.038684
2026-01-04 0.004668 0.006787 0.009737 0.014155 0.020627 0.029801 0.043865
2026-01-11 0.004345 0.006522 0.009648 0.014482 0.021801 0.032521 0.049514
2026-01-18 0.003955 0.006111 0.009299 0.014376 0.022299 0.034259 0.053816
2026-01-25 0.003643 0.005783 0.009036 0.014361 0.022909 0.036184 0.058533
2026-02-01 0.003320 0.005407 0.008660 0.014125 0.023136 0.037505 0.062369
2026-02-08 0.003106 0.005182 0.008499 0.014211 0.023870 0.039671 0.067739
2026-02-15 0.002877 0.004911 0.008237 0.014100 0.024257 0.041280 0.072283
2026-02-22 0.002748 0.004803 0.008241 0.014448 0.025469 0.044399 0.079763
2026-03-01 0.002493 0.004455 0.007810 0.014007 0.025271 0.045076 0.082982
2026-03-08 0.002302 0.004202 0.007522 0.013789 0.025438 0.046391 0.087444
2026-03-15 0.002104 0.003919 0.007157 0.013397 0.025250 0.047036 0.090690
2026-03-22 0.002047 0.003890 0.007247 0.013853 0.026675 0.050757 0.100108
2026-03-29 0.001966 0.003811 0.007236 0.014113 0.027741 0.053875 0.108606
2026-04-05 0.001900 0.003753 0.007260 0.014439 0.028958 0.057373 0.118150
2026-04-12 0.001786 0.003592 0.007073 0.014334 0.029303 0.059174 0.124371
2026-04-19 0.001691 0.003462 0.006937 0.014318 0.029825 0.061364 0.131576
2026-04-26 0.001580 0.003291 0.006704 0.014084 0.029872 0.062578 0.136794
2026-05-03 0.001511 0.003200 0.006628 0.014169 0.030597 0.065253 0.145405